Damaging winds that gusted to 141km/h on kunanyi/Mount Wellington on Friday night are easing across southern Tasmania this morning, but the Bureau of Meteorology expects another front to bring them back from Sunday morning, this time with temperatures in the high 20s and elevated fire danger.
The Bureau's severe weather warning for damaging winds, renewed at 4:17am on Saturday, covers the Upper Derwent Valley, South East and Central Plateau and parts of seven other forecast districts. It forecast westerly winds averaging 55 to 65km/h with peak gusts around 100km/h this morning, including in Hobart, before clearing later in the morning. "Another frontal passage bringing damaging winds to parts of Tasmania is again expected from Sunday morning," the warning says. Hobart, New Norfolk, Bicheno, Dover, Larapuna and Geeveston are named as locations that may be affected. The next update was due by 11am.
Friday's front delivered. Hobart's Ellerslie Road station recorded a 102km/h northwesterly gust at 8pm. Kunanyi/Mount Wellington reached 141km/h at 8:02pm and was still gusting to 135km/h at 7am Saturday. Maatsuyker Island recorded 122km/h, Hogan Island 113km/h, and Scotts Peak and Hartz Mountains 104km/h each. Hobart Airport gusted to 87km/h at 5:30am.
Saturday afternoon brings a break as a weak ridge crosses the state. Sunday is the day to watch. The Bureau forecasts Hobart to reach 27 degrees, with northwesterly winds of 25 to 40km/h increasing to 35 to 50km/h in the middle of the day. Hobart's September mean maximum is 15.2 degrees, so Sunday would run about 12 degrees above average. It would not be a record: the September high at Ellerslie Road is 31.0 degrees, set on 27 September 1987.
“From around midday into the afternoon and early evening, that's where conditions will be at their windiest, their hottest and their driest," Bureau senior meteorologist Matthew Thomas told the ABC.”
The Bureau rates fire danger High on Sunday for King Island, the Furneaux Islands, the East Coast, Midlands, Upper Derwent Valley, South East and Western districts. No fire weather warning is current and no fire restrictions are in place. Tasmania Fire Service deputy chief officer Matt Lowe told the ABC the service was "strongly discouraging" people with registered burns from going ahead, and asked people to check any recent campfires, burn-offs and fire pits. "The best practice is to soak it, stir it, and soak it again," he said.
Gale warnings are current for the South East and South West coasts today, extending on Sunday to waters off the east and west coasts and around Flinders Island.
The cold front crosses Tasmania on Sunday evening, turning the flow colder southwesterly by Monday morning. Hobart is forecast to reach just 15 degrees on Monday. The same change reaches Adelaide around the middle of Sunday and Melbourne on Sunday evening.
The State Emergency Service advises people in the warning area to secure outdoor items, take care around damaged trees and power lines, and report power outages to TasNetworks on 132 004. For emergency help, call the SES on 132 500. The Bureau's next warning update will say whether Sunday's winds are covered by the current warning or a new one.
