The Bureau of Meteorology issued severe weather warnings for damaging winds across South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales on Friday morning, ahead of a strong cold front that will reach south-eastern South Australia overnight and cross Victoria and southern New South Wales through Saturday. The Bureau expects peak gusts of up to 110km/h in Victoria's north-east ranges and alpine areas from late Friday evening, and around 100km/h in the Mount Lofty and Flinders ranges, the Blue Mountains, the Snowy Mountains and the southern ACT from around sunrise on Saturday.
The South Australian warning, issued at 9:08am on Friday, covers the Mount Lofty Ranges, Mid North, Kangaroo Island, the Upper and Lower South East and parts of the Flinders and Murraylands districts. Strong north-westerlies develop ahead of the front tonight and swing westerly behind it around sunrise. The Bureau expects damaging westerly winds averaging 60 to 70km/h with gusts of around 100km/h over the Mount Lofty and Flinders ranges from early Saturday, easing late in the afternoon, and gusts above 90km/h in showers and thunderstorms over Kangaroo Island and the South East, contracting to the Lower South East by midday. Mount Gambier, Clare, Murray Bridge, Kingscote, Naracoorte and Keith are among the places named.
Victoria's warning, issued at 9:36am, starts earlier. North-westerly winds averaging 65 to 75km/h with gusts to 110km/h are likely over the north-east ranges and alpine areas from late Friday evening. Gusts of around 90km/h are possible over the Macedon and Central ranges from early Saturday and, in showers and storms, across the south-west from Saturday morning. The Bureau expects the winds to ease from the Macedon and Central ranges late Saturday morning, from the south-west early in the afternoon and from remaining areas on Saturday evening. Warrnambool, Stawell, Hamilton, Portland, Falls Creek and Edenhope are listed.
In New South Wales and the ACT, the warning issued at 9:25am covers the Illawarra and parts of the South Coast, Central and Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes and Snowy Mountains. Damaging winds averaging 60 to 70km/h with gusts around 100km/h are forecast to develop around sunrise on Saturday over parts of the Blue Mountains, the Snowy Mountains and the southern ACT. Above 1900 metres the Bureau expects averages of 80 to 90km/h and says blizzard conditions are possible from mid-afternoon until early evening; the National Parks and Wildlife Service recommends postponing back-country travel. Along the Illawarra and South Coast, gusts around 90km/h are forecast from late morning, with Wollongong, Nowra, Katoomba, Lithgow, Jindabyne and Thredbo named. Winds should ease across the warning area late Saturday afternoon or early evening.
The rain that comes with the front lands on catchments that are already full. A flood watch for north and north-east Victoria, issued on Thursday afternoon, says minor flooding may develop from Saturday afternoon with a chance of isolated moderate flooding where the rain is heaviest, across the Upper Murray and Mitta Mitta, Kiewa, Ovens and King, Loddon and Avoca catchments. The Loddon River was still in minor flood at Appin South on Friday morning, steady at 2.95 metres after its third peak of the winter passed through, and the Bureau says renewed rises are possible over the weekend. A separate flood watch for Tasmania's north, north-east and north-west and the River Derwent expects minor flooding from Saturday as a low crosses the state. Both watches are due for reissue by 1pm on Friday.
For the ski resorts it is a rain event first. The Bureau's Saturday forecast for Perisher Valley is rain or snow, very windy, with 8 to 50mm, and for Mount Hotham 9 to 50mm with a top of three degrees. The Victorian snow level only drops to 1500 metres late on Saturday afternoon and the New South Wales level to 1700 metres late in the day, before showers clear on Sunday. Sheep grazier warnings are current for the Snowy Mountains and ACT and for Victoria's north-east and Gippsland districts.
The winds recorded overnight belonged to the system that is leaving. Maatsuyker Island off southern Tasmania gusted to 128km/h just after midnight, kunanyi/Mount Wellington to 124km/h and Thredbo Top Station to 93km/h at 3:19am. By mid-morning on Friday the first sign of the new front was a north-westerly of 74km/h at Mount Hotham, 72km/h at Mount Buller and 70km/h at Falls Creek, and 70km/h at Ceduna on the Eyre Peninsula.
A high moves in behind the front on Sunday, with Adelaide forecast to reach 17 degrees under partly cloudy skies, Canberra a sunny 19 after a low of four, and Melbourne a shower or two, before another front clips southern Victoria on Monday. The Bureau will reissue the three severe weather warnings by 5pm local time on Friday, and the Victorian and Tasmanian flood watches by 1pm.
