Westerly winds gusting to 128 km/h crossed Tasmania overnight and into Thursday morning, with King Island Airport reaching that speed at 5.28am and Maatsuyker Island, off the south coast, matching it at 10.37am. The Bureau of Meteorology cancelled its severe weather warning for King Island and the Furneaux Islands at 10.42am but kept it in force for the west, south, centre and northeast of the state, where damaging winds are expected to continue into Thursday evening and ease by sunrise on Friday.
The 10.42am warning covers the Western, Upper Derwent Valley, South East and Central Plateau districts and parts of the North East, East Coast, North West Coast, Central North and Midlands. It forecasts westerly winds of 60 to 70 km/h with gusts around 100 km/h across the west coast and adjacent southern and central areas through Thursday, and gusts around 120 km/h on elevated ground. Along the west coast north of and including Strahan, the damaging winds are expected to ease later in the afternoon.
The northeast is next. The Bureau expects damaging westerlies of 55 to 65 km/h to develop about the northeast coast during the afternoon, with isolated gusts to 100 km/h, and gusts around 100 km/h over elevated parts of the northeast into the early evening. The towns named in the warning are Strahan, New Norfolk, Bothwell, Geeveston, Dover and Bridport. Winds contract to the south and southwest late in the evening.
The highest gusts so far are on the exposed peaks and islands. Mount Read recorded 115 km/h at 4.59am and kunanyi/Mount Wellington 115 km/h at 8.11am, where the temperature sat at zero and the apparent temperature at minus 13.8 degrees. Hogan Island in Bass Strait reached 113 km/h, Scotts Peak Dam 111 km/h, Hartz Mountain 109 km/h and Low Rocky Point 102 km/h. Hobart's city station recorded 80 km/h at 10.02am, and Launceston Airport and Hobart Airport both reached 72 km/h. Rain has been negligible, with most stations recording nothing since 9am and Warra the wettest at 3.4 mm. This is a wind event, not a rain event.
TasNetworks' outage page showed no weather-related outages at 11.15am. About 300 customers around Tarraleah, Bradys Lake and Bronte Park were without power because of the fire at Tungatinah Power Station on Wednesday night, which has not been linked to the weather.
The same front crossed the mainland overnight. Thredbo Top Station recorded 106 km/h at 3.18am, and the Bureau cancelled its damaging wind warning for the Snowy Mountains at 9.46am, saying the northwesterly airstream over the alps "will remain sub severe". In Victoria, Wilsons Promontory reached 98 km/h at 10.07am and Falls Creek 95 km/h, and gale warnings apply to the Central, Central Gippsland and East Gippsland coasts. The Loddon River at Appin South was at 2.99 metres and around its peak at 10.23am, with minor flooding expected to persist for several days.
Hobart's forecast for Thursday is a top of 14 with showers, possible small hail and westerlies of 25 to 40 km/h, with snow falling to 800 metres in the afternoon and to about 1,000 metres on Friday morning as the westerlies ease. The Bureau expects a low pressure system to approach from the west early on Saturday, bringing 20 to 30 mm to Strahan and 25 to 35 mm to Queenstown and Devonport on Friday, and widespread showers across the north and west on Saturday, with 6 to 20 mm in Hobart and 15 to 35 mm in Launceston. Sunday is mostly fine with fresh southwesterlies.
The front arrived at the end of a season the Bureau has already summarised. Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales each had their warmest winter on record, according to the seasonal summary issued on 1 September, and Tasmania's August rainfall was 44 per cent below the 1961 to 1990 average, its driest August since 1982. The Bureau's spring outlook, issued on 27 August, gives south-eastern Australia a 60 to greater than 80 per cent chance of below-average rainfall, with the dry signal strongest in September and a strong El Niño established in the Pacific.
The next severe weather warning is due by 5pm AEST on Thursday. A warning to sheep graziers for the Upper Derwent Valley and South East was renewed at 10.51am, and gale warnings cover most Tasmanian coastal waters on Thursday and the South East and South West coasts on Friday. The State Emergency Service can be reached on 132 500.
