Damaging wind gusts of around 90 kilometres an hour are possible near Albany and about the Stirling Ranges on Saturday afternoon, with the same band of weather tracking east towards Esperance through the evening.
The Bureau of Meteorology issued the severe weather warning at 4.45am AWST on Saturday, covering parts of the South Coastal, South East Coastal and Great Southern districts. It names Albany, the Stirling Ranges, Esperance, Bremer Bay and Hopetoun. The strongest gusts are expected inside showers and thunderstorms rather than steadily through the day, and conditions ease on Saturday night.
The next warning is due by 11am AWST.
Perth sits north of the warning area and gets the weaker end of the same system. The Bureau's forecast for the city, issued at 8.16am, has cloud and a very high chance of showers easing late in the afternoon, with a chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and early afternoon and the possibility of small hail. The maximum is 16 degrees. South-westerly winds of 25 to 40 kilometres an hour turn southerly at 15 to 20 in the evening.
The heavier rain arrives on Monday, with 10 to 25 millimetres forecast for Perth, a possible thunderstorm and a maximum of 17. Sunday is the quieter day in between: a minimum of 5 and a maximum of 17, showers most likely in the south-west.
The front is wide enough to be generating warnings in four states. South Australia has a severe weather warning of its own covering parts of the West Coast, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Flinders, Mid North and North East Pastoral districts, plus a sheep graziers warning across eleven districts. Sheep graziers warnings are also current in Western Australia, New South Wales and Victoria, and marine wind warning summaries are running for Western Australian, South Australian, New South Wales, Victorian and Tasmanian waters. Queensland and the Northern Territory have nothing current.
Victoria has the other piece of it. The Bureau issued an initial flood watch at 12.39pm AEST on Friday for parts of the North East, Gippsland and Central Victoria, with flooding possible from late Sunday into early next week. The catchments listed are the Upper Murray and Mitta Mitta, the Kiewa, the Ovens and King, the Broken, the Goulburn, the Snowy, the Mitchell, the Macalister, the Bunyip, Dandenong Creek and the Yarra upstream of Warrandyte.
A flood watch is not a flood warning. It tells catchment communities that the rainfall forecast is heavy enough to make flooding possible over the following days, which is the point at which stock, pumps and low-lying access roads get moved. Warnings for specific river heights follow only once the rain has actually fallen.
Two updates to watch. The Bureau reissues the Western Australian severe weather warning by 11am AWST, and the Victorian flood watch updates at 1pm AEST on Saturday.
