A strong cold front will cross Victoria and New South Wales on Sunday, bringing rain to both states and pushing snow down to 1200 metres by Monday morning. The Bureau of Meteorology set out the timing in state forecasts issued early on Friday.
The Victorian forecast, issued at 4am, has a ridge of high pressure sliding away to the east on Friday and northerly flow building ahead of the front. Rain develops in the west on Saturday and reaches eastern districts by evening. On Sunday it goes state wide, with a chance of a thunderstorm in the far west and snow showers above 1300 metres in the evening.
By Monday the rain clears westward and snow showers fall above 1200 metres through the morning. Winds turn westerly during the day.
The New South Wales forecast, issued 20 minutes later, tracks the same system. The front enters the far west late on Saturday, crosses the state on Sunday and moves offshore on Monday, with weaker fronts following next week. Sunday brings showers or rain about southern and central parts with moderate falls possible, and snow likely above 1700 metres on the alpine peaks. On Monday snow reaches down to 1200 metres in the Snowy Mountains and temperatures sit below average.
No severe weather warning was current for either state on Friday morning. The Bureau's Australian Warnings Summary, updated at 10.11am AEST, listed a frost warning for the Mallee district in Victoria and a sheep graziers warning for the Snowy Mountains in New South Wales. Western Australia had a sheep graziers warning covering the South West, South Coastal, South East Coastal and Great Southern districts.
Marine wind warning summaries were current for Western Australian, South Australian, Victorian and Tasmanian waters, with four ocean wind warnings active for Metarea 10. Queensland and the Northern Territory had nothing current.
The gap between a forecast and a warning is timing rather than doubt. The Bureau issues severe weather warnings when hazardous conditions are occurring or expected within about 24 hours, so any warning for damaging winds in the alps would come over the weekend, not three days out.
Whatever falls will land on a thin base. Snowy Hydro's snow course at Spencers Creek, between Perisher and Charlotte Pass, measured 87.1 centimetres on 5 August.
The graziers warnings are the practical end of a cold outbreak. They go out when cold, wet and windy conditions together create a risk of losses among lambs and recently shorn sheep, and they lapse and reissue day by day against the current forecast. The Snowy Mountains warning was current again on Friday, as it was on Thursday.
The Bureau updates its state forecasts twice a day and issues warnings against them as conditions firm up. Two points to watch: Saturday evening, when the front reaches western Victoria, and Sunday, when it crosses both states.
