The Western Bulldogs open Round 22 against North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium at 7.30pm on Thursday, holding eighth place on the ladder with the weakest percentage of any side in the top eight.
The Bulldogs sit on 12 wins and eight losses, 48 premiership points, at 94.83 per cent. Geelong holds seventh on the same 48 points at 117.23. That difference is the whole problem: the Bulldogs have won as often as the side above them and scored a good deal less while doing it.
Collingwood is ninth on 46 points, from 11 wins, eight losses and a draw, at 105.60 per cent. Two points and a much healthier percentage separate the two clubs with three matches each to play. If the Bulldogs and Collingwood finish level on points, percentage decides it, and on current figures that is not a calculation the Bulldogs want to reach.
Collingwood's Round 22 assignment is West Coast at Optus Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Eagles are 16th on four wins and 16 losses at 70.82 per cent, the second lowest in the competition.
North Melbourne is 13th on eight wins and 12 losses, 32 points, at 89.30 per cent, and is out of finals contention. The Kangaroos have won enough this season to be awkward rather than negligible, and Marvel Stadium is a ground they know as well as their opponent does.
Margin matters here in a way it usually does not this far from a final. A narrow Bulldogs win keeps eighth but does little for a percentage that needs the help. A loss puts the position in Collingwood's hands.
The arithmetic is unforgiving this late. Percentage is points scored against points conceded across the whole season, so with 20 matches already banked one result shifts it very little. At 94.83 the Bulldogs have conceded more than they have scored across the year, and no other side in the top eight is under 100. Three matches will not repair that by much, which leaves wins rather than margins as the realistic route to holding the position.
Eighth is worth an elimination final. Ninth is worth the end of the season, and that is the whole return on the year behind them.
At the top the order is settled. Fremantle leads on 18 wins and two losses at 147.33 per cent, ahead of Sydney on 60 points and Hawthorn on 58. Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne are locked together on 52 points in fourth, fifth and sixth, separated by percentage alone.
Round 22 continues with Brisbane against Hawthorn at the Gabba on Friday night. It closes on Sunday evening with St Kilda against Carlton at Marvel Stadium, following the AFLW season opener between the same two clubs earlier that day in the first combined Spud's Game double header.
