The United States has agreed to continue negotiating with Iran while declaring the ceasefire between them over, leaving the Strait of Hormuz contested, the talks without a venue or a date, and Australian motorists paying 16 cents a litre more than they did a fortnight ago.
"The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue 'talks,'" President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social. "We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!" He had already told reporters at the NATO summit in Ankara that dealing with Tehran was "just a waste of time".
Senior US officials, briefing reporters on condition of anonymity, set out three demands. Iran must publicly commit to stop attacking ships in the strait. All lanes must be open, with no tolls. And Iran must surrender its nuclear material, which US officials call "nuclear dust". "I just want to be clear here that if we don't get the dust, we do not have a deal with Iran," one official said. The same official said the US had "a lot of options" if Iran refused, "including military and economic options".
Iran has not moved on the strait. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, its lead negotiator and parliamentary speaker, said it "will be reopened only under Iranian arrangements, not through US threats". Iranian shipping rules still require vessels to lodge a transit request 48 hours in advance. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi travels to Oman on Sunday for talks that Iranian state agency IRNA says will cover the strait. A Qatari delegation was in Tehran on Friday.
The week that produced this standoff was violent. US Central Command said American forces struck more than 80 targets in Iran on Wednesday, hitting defence systems, command and control networks, coastal radar and more than 60 Revolutionary Guard small boats in and around the strait, after three Qatari and Saudi tankers came under fire. CENTCOM announced further strikes on Thursday. Iranian officials, through the state news agency Fars, said 14 people were killed and 78 injured across five provinces in those two days of strikes.
Iran answered on Thursday against the countries hosting American forces rather than against America itself, striking a fuel storage facility in Bahrain, an early warning site in Qatar and Patriot systems in Kuwait. The Kuwaiti armed forces said they engaged one cruise missile, three ballistic missiles and 10 drones, and that one person was injured by falling shrapnel. The Revolutionary Guard claimed it destroyed eight US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, a claim that has not been independently verified. Friday brought no reported strikes.
About a fifth of the world's oil passes through the strait. Iran attempted to charge a toll of US$2 million a vessel earlier this year, a scheme rejected by a coalition of 40 countries led by Britain. The UN Security Council condemned Iran's attacks on its Gulf neighbours in resolution 2817.
Australia's exposure to all of this is direct, and it is not at the table. The talks are between Washington and Tehran, with Qatar and Oman mediating. Australia deployed an RAAF E-7A Wedgetail early warning aircraft, air-to-air missiles and about 85 Defence personnel to the United Arab Emirates in March. Its embassy in Tehran has suspended operations, and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade rates Iran "do not travel", its highest warning, citing the risk of arbitrary detention of Australians including dual nationals.
The bill arrives at the bowser. The ACCC's weekly fuel report, published on Friday, put average petrol across the five largest cities at 167.5 cents a litre on 8 July, up 16 cents from 151.5 cents on 30 June, when the government restored part of the fuel excise it had cut during the war. Perth rose the most, by 24.5 cents. The remaining excise relief ends on 3 August. Brent crude averaged US$70 a barrel in the week to 8 July, which the ACCC described as relatively stable.
The nuclear question that started the war remains unmeasured. The International Atomic Energy Agency withdrew its inspectors when the fighting began and has not verified Iran's stockpile since. Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, told the Security Council on Friday there was now a "lost continuity of knowledge" about the programme.
As of Saturday the ceasefire is over by American declaration, unrevoked by Iran, and the strait is neither closed nor free. Araqchi lands in Muscat on Sunday.
