One Nation's surge in the polls has receded for a second straight week. Roy Morgan's latest federal survey, released Monday, put the party's primary vote at 22.5 per cent, down nine points from a late-June peak, while Labor held a two-party-preferred lead of 55 to 45 over the Coalition.
The survey was taken between 29 June and 5 July from a sample of 1,584 electors. On the primary vote it had Labor unchanged at 28 per cent, the Coalition at 21.5 per cent, the Greens up one point at 14 per cent, and independents and other parties up to 14 per cent. One Nation fell 3.5 points on the week.
The party's number is worth watching because of where it came from. One Nation reached 31.5 per cent in Roy Morgan's series in late June, first among the primary votes, after leader Pauline Hanson addressed the National Press Club. It has given back nine points across the two weeks since. On the two-party count against Labor, the same poll had Labor ahead 56 to 44.
One weekly poll from one pollster is a single data point, and week-to-week movements of a few points sit within the range that sampling alone can produce. The durable figure in the series is not the One Nation spike or its retreat. It is the combined major-party primary vote: Labor on 28 and the Coalition on 21.5 add to 49.5 per cent, below half.
That is the number the result rests on. More than one in two voters told Roy Morgan they would give their first preference to someone other than Labor or the Coalition, split across One Nation, the Greens, independents and minor parties. Labor's lead on the two-party count is large, but it is assembled from preferences flowing back from that fragmented field, not from a first-preference majority of its own.
Anthony Albanese leads a government elected in 2025; Angus Taylor has led the Coalition since February, when he took the Liberal leadership from Sussan Ley. Neither major party holds the primary ground it once did, and a poll driven up and then down by a single press-club appearance is a reminder of how much of the vote is now unattached to either of them. Roy Morgan's next weekly reading is due in seven days.
