The eye of Super Typhoon Bavi passed directly over Rota in the Northern Mariana Islands on Monday morning local time, with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimating one-minute sustained winds of 285km/h in the Category 5 system as it moved west at about 15km/h.
The US National Weather Service in Guam, whose warnings covered Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, forecast winds to 290km/h with gusts to 350km/h and at least 50 centimetres of rain across the region, and its extreme wind warning described conditions posing imminent danger to life. "They are currently already encountering catastrophic wind," NWS meteorologist Edwin Montvila said of Rota as the eyewall arrived. "Entering outside can result in death from flying projectiles."
Rota is home to fewer than 2,000 people. Gusts above 160km/h were recorded at Saipan's airport, and no deaths or injuries had been reported as of the Associated Press's Sunday night update, filed before any daylight damage assessment. "Hang tight. We're coming just out of the peak of conditions," NWS meteorologist Brandon Aydlett told residents as the worst passed.
The islands are taking this hit while still wounded from the last one. Many residents of Saipan and Tinian remain without mains power from Super Typhoon Sinlaku, the April Category 5 that killed 17 people across the Marianas, Guam and Micronesia and caused about US$1.5 billion in damage, according to Yale Climate Connections. Bavi is the third Category 5 recorded globally in 2026 and the second to strike this island group in three months, after intensifying by 160km/h in 36 hours over 29 to 30 degree water during a strong El Nino.
“Here we are experiencing another severe force of winds on our island, but as we know, we are always ready and prepared in our planning and our protection of our people," Guam Governor Lou Leon Guerrero said as the storm approached.”
Bavi now heads into the Philippine Sea. The Philippine weather bureau PAGASA says a direct landfall there is less likely, though the system could pass near the Batanes islands, and forecast models favour an approach to Taiwan on Friday or Saturday: a four-to-five-day forecast that carries real track uncertainty.
Australia has no diplomatic post in Guam or the Northern Marianas; consular assistance for Australians in the region runs through the Consulate-General in Honolulu and DFAT's emergency line.
The next NWS Guam bulletins will confirm when warnings are downgraded as the system clears the Marianas, and damage assessments on Rota begin once conditions allow. Taiwan's watch starts later this week.
